进口贸易视域下国际粮价对国内粮价的传导路径--来自玉米和大豆的证据

基于玉米和大豆等粮食国际、国内价格历史数据,运用协整及误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等方法,揭示国际粮价对国内粮价的传导作用及影响路径。理论分析表明,国际粮价通过进口直接路径、进口产品成本路径和进口替代路径等三个子路径传导至国内粮价。实证检验发现,国际大豆价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导均比较充分,即国际大豆价格会影响大豆进口价格,进而影响国内大豆价格,最终影响国内豆油价格;国际玉米价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导则不充分,国际玉米价格会影响玉米进口价格,但是对国内玉米价格和国内玉米淀粉价格影响程度较低;而在进口替代路径中,玉米和大豆的国际价格传导均不充分。我国应继续推进以提质增效为目标的农业供给侧结构性改革,加大粮食生产科技投入力度,调动农民种粮积极性,集中力量提高粮食供给质量和效率;坚持粮食进口仅为调剂国内供求余缺的方针,把握粮食安全的主动权;建立健全粮食市场的价格调控体系及风险防控体系,规避国际粮食市场剧烈波动对国内粮食市场的影响。     

基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。     

Analysis of Bitcoin prices using market and sentiment variables

This paper proposes an empirical model for analysing the dynamics of Bitcoin prices. To do this, we consider a vector error correction model over two overlapping periods: 2010–17 and 2010–19. Price discovery is achieved through the Gonzalo–Granger permanent‐transitory decomposition. The pricing factors are endogenous linear combinations of the S&P 500 index, gold price, a Google search variable associated to Bitcoin and a fear index proxied by the FED Financial Stress Index. Our empirical analysis shows that during the first period, a linear combination of four pricing factors describes the efficient Bitcoin price. The S&P 500 index and Google searches have a positive effect whereas gold prices and the fear index have a negative effect. In contrast, during the second period, the efficient price behaves idiosyncratically and can be only rationalised by individuals' search for information on the cryptocurrency. These findings provide empirical evidence on the presence of a correction in Bitcoin prices during the period 2018–19 uncorrelated to market fundamentals. We also show that standard empirical asset pricing models perform poorly for explaining Bitcoin prices.     

Envisioning a community‐centric approach to impact assessments in subsistence marketplaces

What does a community‐centric approach to impact assessment look like? That is the central question addressed in this article. Our community‐centric perspective provides an alternative to discipline‐centric approaches to impact assessment that emphasize specific methodological gold‐standards (e.g., randomized controlled trials [RCTs] in development economics). Disciplinary approaches to impact assessment owe their principal allegiance to the discipline's knowledge‐creation norms. Consequently, the concerns, interests, and voices of community members are not fully captured in the impact assessment process. In this article, we flip the conventional perspective to offer a community‐centric view of impact assessment that places the concerns, interests and voices of community members front and center. We present the case for why we need a community‐centric approach to impact assessment and clarify its axiological content, theoretical perspective, and methodological stance. Specifically, we advocate for a relational axiology, a system‐theoretic perspective, and a phenomenological methodology.     

集成动员理论下军民科技协同创新机制设计研究

军民科技协同创新能力是国家科技整体竞争力的重要组成部分。近年来，军民科技协同创新取得显著成效，但也存在诸多问题，严重阻碍了军民科技协同创新深入发展。因此，迫切需要对军民科技协同创新机制进行系统性设计。基于集成动员理论的核心思想，借鉴其组织模式和运行机制理论，针对军民科技协同创新机制不明晰等问题，对军民科技协同创新机制进行系统性设计，提出在军民科技协同创新管理机构的引导下，将军民科技协同创新的各种资源要素和功能集成于军民科技协同创新服务平台，为军民科技协同创新流程和成果转化流程两大板块提供相关服务，并构建相关运行保障机制，进而实现军民科技协同创新集成化、敏捷化、模块化、高效化管理，进一步完善军民科技协同创新管理体系。     

干旱区内陆河流域未利用地开发生态风险评价及预测*——以开都河流域为例

[目的]探析开都河流域在未利用地开发过程中生态风险指数的变化特征,为西北干旱区内陆河流域土地利用结构调整与生态保护修复协调发展提供建议。[方法]文章采用PSR模型构建基于14个指标框架的流域未利用地开发生态风险评价指标体系;通过测度综合生态风险指数法进行时空视角的特征变化与格局划分评价;并运用灰色预测模型前瞻性模糊预测该区域未来4年的生态风险变化态势。[结果]2009—2016年开都河流域未利用地开发生态风险整体呈波动上升趋势,生态风险程度由较低下降至低生态风险水平,随后上升至一般程度。这是因为土地开发利用对生态环境造成压力,但在政府相应生态保护政策的出台落实下又逐步缓解,生态系统结构和功能好转明显,抵御风险能力得以提升。预测结果显示2017—2020年开都河流域生态风险将由一般生态风险程度上升至较高程度,因此需要采取适当的管理措施来消减生态风险发生的可能性。[结论]开都河流域作为沙漠中典型的绿洲生态系统,生态环境较为脆弱,通过未利用地的差别化开发、鼓励零星分散的开发模式以及细分不同地类开发的生态补偿设置等方式路径,以期缓解降低干旱区内陆河流域未利用地开发带来的生态风险。     

生计资本对黄土丘陵区贫困人口生计活动的影响及评价*——以甘肃省榆中县为例

［目的］通过深入研究黄土丘陵区贫困人口生计资本对生计活动的影响，为解决农村贫困问题，提升农户生计资本存量、实现区域可持续生计发展提供科学依据。［方法］文章以甘肃省榆中县为例，基于对榆中县农户的调查数据，采用熵值法分析了东北部山区、中部川区和西南部山区贫困人口的生计资本状况和生计活动方式，并对其生计活动进行评价。［结果］从农户的生计资本组合来看，榆中县整体自然资本和人力资本相对物质资本、金融资本、社会资本3类资本较为富裕，尤其在西南部山区和东北部山区3类资本缺乏型农户比例较高。中部川区各乡镇人口的总体生计资本状况较好，总指数最高，而西南部山区次之、东北部山区最低，两者生计资本状况总体匮乏。农户的生计活动主要以种植、养殖和外出打工为主，生计活动多样性程度偏低； 中部川区人口的生计活动多样性指数最高，西南部山区次之、东北部山区最低，且整体受教育程度偏低，加之物质资本、金融资本、社会资本缺乏进一步限制了当地农户的生计多样性。［结论］（1）针对不同生计资本水平和生计活动多样性程度偏低的贫困地区，需要进一步发挥民族文化产业扶贫优势，开启地域产业扶贫新模式，打造地域无公害特色农业产业品牌，提高农户物质资本边际贡献； （2）发展小额信贷金融服务，改善农户金融资本存量，预防村际农户金融资本二元极化； （3）实施免费教育培训技能学习，打造教育培训脱贫示范村，提高人力资本存量，缓解贫困人口生计压力等提高经济发展水平的扶贫政策措施。     

高管薪酬、董事会治理与分类转移

本文研究了高管薪酬和董事会治理对分类转移的影响。研究表明,货币薪酬会诱使高管向上转移利得,股权激励和缺乏区分度的薪酬制度会诱使高管同时向下转移费用和向上转移利得;而勤勉、独立和两职分离的董事会能够在一定程度上识别并抑制这两种不同方式的分类转移;但董事会对分类转移的抑制程度小于高管薪酬对分类转移的诱发程度。进一步地,良好的市场、法制和媒体监督环境能够有效缓解高管薪酬对分类转移的诱发作用,而董事会能够有效弥补法制建设和媒体监督不足导致的分类转移治理缺陷,并在较高质量的审计环境下对分类转移发挥更强的抑制作用。本文首次结合制度背景和媒体监督研究了公司核心治理机制对不同分类转移方式的影响和原因,并创新性地对向上转移利得的程度进行了衡量,为监管部门及公司治理机制、会计准则的制定者提供经验证据。     

论物保与人保并存纠纷中债权实现之顺位——以近五年来类案实证研究为基础

当前,物保与人保并存纠纷不断涌现，相关裁判时常冲突，引发社会关注。围绕当前物保与人保并存纠纷债权实现条款模式、关于物保与人保并存债权实现顺位之理解、债权人是否放弃物保之认定等相关问题，对近五年来最为主要的类案进行实证分析与比较研究可见，处理物保与人保并存纠纷，应当根据物保相对优先的精神，对保证人是否就放弃物保优先抗辩权重点作出判断，据此就物保与人保提供者的责任顺位作出正确裁决。     

The influence of managers' awareness of climate change,perceived climate risk exposure and risk tolerance on the adoption of corporate responses to climate change

Uncertainties posed by climate change limit companies' ability to understand implications of global warming on business and society at large, hampering the adoption of tangible organizational responses to climate change. Understanding climate action thus requires to investigate influential factors of decision-making under uncertainty, which implies acknowledging managerial interpretations and perceptions about climate issues. Drawing insights from the literature on climate inaction and from corporate sustainability literature, the present study examines awareness of climate change and perceived exposure to climate risks as antecedents of corporate responses to climate change, drawing on a survey of managers of Italian manufacturing companies. In addition, the study tests the moderation of risk tolerance on the relation between perceived climate risk exposure and climate action, suggesting that risk attitudes are a significant factor of decision-making under climate uncertainty. The results support the hypothesis of the model and thus provide several contributions to the literature on business and climate change. Managerial implications and avenues for future research are also discussed.